Saxony-Anhalt Election: 7 Alarming Signs of a Populist Wave in Europe

The Saxony-Anhalt election has delivered a serious blow to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and sent a warning signal to political leaders across Europe. The far-right Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD, finished just short of an outright majority in Sunday’s vote in the eastern German state, marking its best-ever result in a state election.

The outcome matters well beyond Saxony-Anhalt’s borders. Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats, or CDU, saw their support roughly cut in half compared with the last election, while the AfD nearly doubled its previous vote share. Political analysts say the result reflects a broader pattern of economic frustration and distrust in mainstream parties that is playing out across several European countries.

Here’s a clear look at what happened in the Saxony-Anhalt election, why Merz and his party are facing intense pressure, and what the result could mean for politics elsewhere in Europe.

What Happened in the Saxony-Anhalt Election?

According to preliminary results, the AfD won about 43.8% of the vote in Sunday’s election, securing 39 of the 83 seats in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament. That left the party three seats short of an outright majority and facing real uncertainty over whether it can form a new state government on its own.

Merz’s CDU, meanwhile, fell to somewhere around 17% to 18% of the vote, roughly half of what the party won in the state’s previous election. Voter turnout was unusually high, and the AfD drew especially strong support among workers, male voters and younger voters.

Thorsten Frei, the CDU’s parliamentary leader under Merz, called the result “a watershed for our country,” a comment that captures how seriously the party is treating the outcome. Merz himself told the CDU’s executive board on Monday that the result had shaken the party “to its very foundations,” according to Germany’s Bild newspaper, though he again ruled out any cooperation between the CDU and the AfD.

Why the Saxony-Anhalt Election Is a Blow to Merz

Merz has become one of the primary targets of voter frustration over the cost of living, pension policy and broader economic insecurity. His personal approval ratings have fallen to record lows heading into this election.

A survey conducted by Infratest dimap for Germany’s ARD public broadcaster found that 87% of voters in Saxony-Anhalt were unhappy with Merz’s government. A separate poll for ZDF public television found that three-quarters of respondents, including nearly half of CDU supporters themselves, believed Merz had personally hurt the party’s performance in the election.

Eva von Angern, the top candidate for the left-wing Left party in the state, offered a pointed assessment of Merz’s role in the campaign. While she said Merz wasn’t responsible for every problem voters cited, she added that on the campaign trail, he had become “Hate figure number one” for many voters turning away from establishment parties.

Why This Matters Beyond Germany

Political scientists and European officials say the Saxony-Anhalt election result carries significance well beyond Germany’s borders. Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University, said the AfD has become a highly visible political force that is far more effective at getting its message across than other parties manage to do, warning that the trend isn’t likely to shift quickly.

The result has drawn particular attention in France, where opinion polls suggest the far-right National Rally party could win next year’s presidential election. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure described the Saxony-Anhalt outcome as a very worrying signal, telling RTL radio that it reflects a major challenge from a populist wave that is now global.

With far-right parties already holding power or sharing power in several European countries, the AfD’s strong showing in a German state election is being read as another data point in a broader pattern of political realignment happening across the continent.

Behind the Numbers: Saxony-Anhalt’s Economic Story

Saxony-Anhalt is a largely rural, formerly communist eastern German state with roughly 2.1 million residents. The state has lost about a quarter of its population since German reunification in 1990, and analysts say lingering divisions between eastern and western Germany help explain some of Sunday’s results.

At the same time, the state has made real economic progress over the past decade or so. Its unemployment rate, at around 8%, is not far above the national average, and the state has rebuilt parts of its chemicals industry while developing newer sectors like logistics and green energy.

Even so, voters largely brushed aside warnings from business groups, economists and Merz himself that an AfD win could scare off foreign investment and discourage the skilled workers the state needs. Those warnings did not appear to change many minds on Sunday.

The AfD’s Campaign and Its Leader

The AfD’s campaign in Saxony-Anhalt was led by 35-year-old candidate Ulrich Siegmund, who used social media, including TikTok, along with large in-person rallies to build support. His campaign centered on a promise to bring back what he described as Germany’s “good, old, safe” past.

The party largely brushed off its classification by Germany’s domestic security service as a right-wing extremist organization, a label the AfD has disputed. Despite that classification, there was no sign of any internal revolt against Merz within CDU party committees that met on Monday. One CDU member present at the meetings described the discussions as open and frank, but added that party leadership remains committed to staying its current course.

Economic Pressures Facing Merz’s Government

Merz came to power in 2025 promising tough economic reforms, including a break from Germany’s long tradition of fiscal caution. He pledged hundreds of billions of euros in new borrowing to rebuild the country’s military and modernize its infrastructure. So far, voters, especially in eastern Germany, say they haven’t seen much benefit from those plans.

The broader economic backdrop hasn’t helped. Volkswagen announced a major restructuring plan last week that could eliminate up to 50,000 jobs worldwide and close several German factories, underscoring the strain facing Europe’s largest economy after years of weak growth. High energy costs, driven in part by the wars in Ukraine and Iran, gave the AfD an additional line of attack, with the party arguing that German support for Ukraine has driven up energy prices without benefiting ordinary Germans.

According to the Infratest dimap poll, voters in Saxony-Anhalt trusted the AfD by wide margins over other parties to address their top concerns: social insecurity, peace in Europe, and their own personal economic situations.

What Happens Next?

It remains unclear whether the AfD will be able to form a government in Saxony-Anhalt, since it fell three seats short of an outright majority. AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund said Monday the party plans to hold talks with individual lawmakers or smaller parliamentary groups to see whether it can secure enough support to govern.

Most mainstream German parties continue to observe what’s known as a political “firewall,” an informal agreement not to cooperate with the AfD in ways that would hand it real governing power. Merz has reaffirmed that his party will maintain that position at the national level as well.

The AfD has already signaled that it views the Saxony-Anhalt result as an early step toward a bigger goal: winning federal elections in Germany, which are due in 2029. Analysts say Merz’s coalition is likely to continue governing at the national level through the end of its current term, even as pressure from Sunday’s result continues to mount.